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Appraising 2013

January 29th, 2013 by Bill Collins Leave a reply »

Update on ES Appraisal / Evaluation Solutions

Illinois appraiser Nicholas Conteduca, developer of the site ESAppraisalScam.com, wrote to us about our recent article and his site:

“I enjoyed your article regarding ES Appraisal services…I created this site back on 12/23/12, since then I have had 5,000 hits and numerous messages. I quickly put this site together just to get an idea of how much ES has affected our industry and I was astounded by the response.  I am owed 30k+ and I am a very small firm so after hearing about the bankruptcy this was very disappointing especially around the holidays. I had some plans to use that money on perhaps a home or a car.

After starting the site and posting it in a couple forums it quickly began to catch on, in less than a month I have learned that this company owes our industry over 1 million dollars and counting.  I am one of the younger appraisers out there and I plan on being in this industry for a long time, but if something happens like this again, I do not think I can handle it. Imagine if I had a kid’s tuition to pay for or something major, I would be devastated.”
As this newsletter is being published, Mr. Conteduca’s site reports that the total owed appraisers by ES Appraisal has reached $1,280,244.  His most recent posting from last Thursday indicated that some help might be forthcoming from Chase regarding the matter.  Appraisers interested in learning more can visit the site at: ES Appraisal / Evaluation Solutions

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Appraisers Approaching License Renewal: McKissock’s 7 Hour 2012-2013 USPAP Online Course is Now Available in Most States

McKissock Education, the official provider of the Appraisal Foundation’s online 2012-2013 USPAP courses, is now available in most states. Last year, the Appraisal Foundation and McKissock announced their partnership and the online course is now available in most states. See if courses are available in your area and save up to 20% on course fees by going to our Online McKissock Portal.


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More End of Year Real Estate Reports

The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas released this morning indicated that prices gained 0.6 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis.  On a year to year basis, prices increased 5.5%.  David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee, noted that "housing is clearly recovering".  Speaking on Bloomberg radio this morning with Tom Kean, Karl Case (one of the founders of the index) was somewhat cautious and stated that we still have a “long way to go before we declare victory”.

On January 22nd, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that existing home sales for December declined 1% from November but were up 12.8% from December 2011.  Their “preliminary” total of 4.65 million for 2012 existing home sales is an increase of 9.2% from 2011 and the highest since 2007 when sales reached 5.03 million.

The median sale price in December was $180,800 which represented an increase of 11.5% from December 2011.  The NAR noted that December represented the tenth straight month of year-over-year price increases and the “preliminary” median existing home price was $176,600 for 2012, a rise of 6.3% from 2011.  This increase was also reportedly the largest yearly price increase since 2005.

The NAR reported that “distressed homes” (foreclosures and short sales) made up 24% of December’s existing home sales, an increase from the 22% share in November but a decrease from the 32% share during December of 2011; foreclosures and short sales made up approximately equal numbers of the distressed home sales last month.  In December, the NAR reported that foreclosure sales were discounted 17% below market value and short sales were discounted 16%.

The composition of buyers was essentially unchanged in December with first-time buyers making up 30% of the December’s purchases, unchanged from the previous month and down from 31% in December 2011.  All-cash sales made up 29% of last month’s sales, down from 30% in November and 31% in December 2011.  Investors purchased 21% of the homes sold last month compared with 19% in November and unchanged from the previous December.

A link to the NAR news release which includes regional breakdowns is found here: Existing-Home Sales Slip in December, Prices Continue to Rise; 2012 Totals Up

The NAR reported yesterday that pending home sales declined 4.3% in December from the previous month but were up by 6.9% from December of 2011. 

On Thursday, Pro Teck Valuation Services, along with Collateral Analytics, released their “Home Value Forecast”.  Their report highlighted many positive changes in the real estate market as the new year begins:
“The outlook for the residential real estate market in 2013 is quite different from a year ago. A number of important metros have experienced significant price increases in the past year, the available inventory of homes for sale has decreased by double-digit rates in many markets and buyer sentiment has improved markedly.”

According to their indicators, the top ten CBSAs (Core Based Statistical Areas) are those in and around:
Austin, Texas; Baltimore, Maryland; Boston, Massachusetts; Charlotte, North Carolina; Fort Lauderdale, Florida; Houston, Texas; Los Angeles, California; Miami, Florida; Minneapolis, Minnesota; and Seattle, Washington.

Pro Teck Valuation cites the following as the ten worst CBSAs in January:
Boise, Idaho; Little Rock, Arkansas; Nassau-Suffolk, New York; New Haven, Connecticut; Spartanburg, South Carolina; Sarasota, Florida; Portland, Oregon; Shreveport, Louisiana; Syracuse, New York; and Toledo, Ohio.

A link to the entire report by Pro Teck is found here:
Buy-Sell Indicator Shows Upswing In Most Markets

Another positive report: DataQuick’s “Property Intelligence Report” for January is also mostly upbeat, a link to this can be found here: DataQuick Property Intelligence Report

Writing in the New York Times last week, Ann Carrns discussed Zillow’s year end report which showed an increase of nearly 6.0% nationally in home values.  She noted that Zillow projects a 3.3% rate of appreciation for 2013, a figure that is closer to their historical average annual increase of 3.0%.  Ms. Carrns discusses the analysis of Stan Humphries, Zillow’s chief economist :
“Tight inventory in some markets, combined with strong demand and a slowing pace of foreclosures, contributed to the rise in values, he (Mr. Humphries) said. As values rise, fewer homeowners are underwater, or owe more than their home is worth, and may be more willing to put their homes on the market. The increase in inventory, in turn, should moderate future price increases.”

A link to Zillow’s report which provides local breakdowns is found here: Zillow Home Value Index

Writing in the New York Times on Sunday, Yale professor and S&P/Case-Shiller Index founder Robert Shiller had some cautionary words about the future of the housing market.  He states that:
“We’re beginning to hear noises that we’ve reached a major turning point in the housing market — and that, with interest rates so low, this is a rare opportunity to buy. But are such observations on target? It would be comforting if they were. Yet the unfortunate truth is that the tea leaves don’t clearly suggest any particular path for prices, either up or down.”

A link to Mr. Shiller’s article is found here: A New Housing Boom? Don’t Count on It

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AppraiserNews is a FREE publication, supported by advertising and sales of products designed to help appraisers support and grow their businesses. Please consider supporting us today by seeing what we and our sponsors have to offer.


Start saving up to 20% off of your continuing education course fees today with McKissock and Appraiser Help! 2012-2013 USPAP Courses Now Available!


Rates & Dates

Mortgage interest rates mostly increased in the weekly reports issued by both Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

On January 24th, Freddie Mac reported that 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose from the previous week’s rate of 3.38% to 3.42%. They also noted that last year at this time the 30-year rate was 3.98%. 

Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist of Freddie Mac stated in the release:
“Fixed mortgage rates were up slightly over the holiday week but remain highly affordable and should continue to aid in the ongoing housing recovery. For instance, existing home sales totaled 4.65 million in 2012, showing a 9.2 percent increase over 2011 and the strongest pace in five years. In addition, the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s purchase-only house price index rose 5.7 percent over the 12 months ending in November 2012, marking the largest annual increase since June 2006."

The MBA in its most recent Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey released January 23rd, for the week ending  January 18th, reported that 30-year rates with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) increased to 3.62% from the previous week’s rate of 3.61%.  The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $417,500) decreased to 3.85% from 3.88% the previous week.  Rates for FHA backed mortgages rose to 3.40% from the previous week’s rate of 3.39%.

In their press release of January 23rd, the MBA reported an increase of 7.0% in mortgage applications.  Refinance applications represented 82% of all applications, unchanged from the previous week. 

A link to a graph depicting Freddie Mac’s survey of interest rates during the past year is found here: Economic and Housing Research

Additional information from Freddie Mac can be found by going to: Primary Mortgage Market Survey PMMS – Freddie Mac

Additional information from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found by going to their site at: Research and Forecasts – Mortgage Bankers Association

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Ask Angie

We would first like to congratulate our most recent winner: Karen Long of Karen’s Michigan Appraisal Co.  Karen was the first to answer correctly that John Kenneth Galbraith was the author of the quote "The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled”; Alan King said "Banks have a new image.  Now you have ‘a friend’, your friendly banker.  If the banks are so friendly, how come they chain down the pens?"; and Andrew Jackson said "I have always been afraid of banks".

Today’s questions:

1. Who Said: "Always bear in mind that your own resolution to succeed is more important than any other."

a) Abraham Lincoln
b) Kendra Cherry
c) Dr. Norman Vincent Peale
d) Sarah Palin
e) None of the above

2. Who said: "Do I not destroy my enemies when I make them my friends?"

a) Sarah Palin
b) Abraham Lincoln
c) Kim-Jong Un
d) Mahatma Gandhi
e) None of the above

3. Who said: “Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt."

a) Sarah Palin
b) Mark Twain
c) Abraham Lincoln
d) Lindsay Lohan
e) None of the above

The first person to respond with the correct answers wins a choice of one of the following:

One Free Regular Listing on AppraiserHelp.com

A Free Copy of the Directory of Appraisal Management Companies (Available to Members of AppraiserHelp.com and FHAAppraisers.com FREE!)

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Tell us what you think!

We invite your responses to any of the issues raised in this newsletter. Please e-mail us at: bill@appraiserhelp.com with your thoughts!

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We really hope you find our newsletter to be informative!  If you have any input on future topics for discussion, please email me your questions and I will do my best to address them in the next issue.  If you want to look back at past issues you can see our archive at www.appraisernews.com

Regards,

Bill Collins, Appraiser Help Inc.

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