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Estimating Storm Damage As Hurricane Season Nears

July 15th, 2014

"Pinpointing Hurricane Risk Home By Home"

Last Thursday, CoreLogic’s “Senior Hazard Scientist” Tom Jeffery released the firm’s above named annual report which seeks to quantify the potential damage  to single-family homes by hurricane-driven storm surges. This analysis assists homeowners, lenders and municipalities along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in their risk-management decisions.

CoreLogic reports that more than 6.5 million homes with an estimated $1.5 trillion reproduction cost are at risk of “storm surge inundation”.  Approximately 2/3 of this financial risk is concentrated within 15 major metropolitan areas.  The New York metropolitan area (including northern New Jersey and Long Island) has the highest number of homes at risk (687,412) with a total value estimated at $251 billion.  Miami and Tampa are the second and third rated most at risk metropolitan areas with Florida considered the riskiest of the 19 states (with almost 2.5 million homes and a potential of $490 billion in damage). 

A link to highlights of the CoreLogic report is found here: Pinpointing Hurricane Risk Home by Home

In June, RealtyTrac released their first-ever “Natural Disaster Housing Risk Report” which rated the more than 3,000 U.S. counties as to their overall risk of “disaster events” including hurricanes, tornados and earthquakes.  Counties with the highest risk scores included San Diego and Riverside in California and Brooklyn and Manhattan in New York.  A link to this report (including an interactive map by county) is found here: 10.6 Million Housing Units in Counties with Very High Natural Disaster Risk According To New Realtytrac Report

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Recent Real Estate Reports

Last Thursday, RealtyTrac released an analysis of the impact of four variables on housing prices: foreclosure status, equity, occupancy and year built.  The analysis covered the period from March 2013 to March 2014 and “…looked at 24 discrete property profiles based on the four variables and what average discount — or premium — each of those profiles sold for…”

Nationally, the greatest discount (more than 25%) included homes that were vacant, in the earliest stages of foreclosure and had negative equity.  Surprisingly, bank-owned properties sold in many states at a very small discount to their fair market value with many states reporting a premium attached to such sales.

Realty Trac noted that the largest discounts involved specific property profiles within Illinois, Missouri, Oklahoma, New York and Wisconsin with discounts ranging from 37.3% to 56.0%.
A link to the RealtyTrac report (including a chart of “Best Real Estate Deals by State”) is found here:

New Realtytrac Analysis Profiles Single Family Homes That Sell At The Deepest Discounts and Highest Premiums

Last Tuesday, CoreLogic reported that the national foreclosure inventory was down by 37% from May 2013 to May 2014.  Completed foreclosures declined during the past 12 month period 9.4%.  Pre-foreclosure filings were down by 30.4% from May 2013 to May 2014 and had fallen by 72% from their peak in March of 2009. 

All 50 states plus Washington D.C. reported year over year shrinkage in foreclosure inventory with 44 states posting declines of more than 25%.  The states reporting the greatest drop in inventory were Arizona (-55.8%), Utah (-53.0%), Nebraska (-51.5%), Minnesotat (-51.4%) and Nevada (-48.6%). 

The CoreLogic report highlighted the recovery in the southwest.  A link to the entire CoreLogic report is found here: Foreclosure Inventory Down 37 Percent Nationally From a Year Ago

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AppraiserNews is a FREE publication, supported by advertising and sales of products designed to help appraisers support and grow their businesses. Please consider supporting us today by seeing what we and our sponsors have to offer.

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One More Time: 5 Random Tweets to Make You Smile

1 ) I couldn’t quite remember how to throw a boomerang, but eventually it came back to me.

2 ) The truth may ring out like a bell, but it is seldom tolled.

3 ) Pretty amazing how many people remember what you did to them, but how many remember what you did for them.

4 ) What happens if you get scared half to death twice?

5 ) School for 12 years, college for 4 years, and then you work until you die. You got one life, LIVE IT!

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Appraiser Help’s 2014 Directory of AMCs and National Appraisal Companies is Now Available!

To help appraisers evaluate how AMCs will work for their appraisal practices, we have compiled this expanded directory of AMCs and National Appraisal Companies, listing complete, contact information and other details for each listing.

If you’re looking to maintain or expand your mortgage appraisal practice, our Directory of Appraisal Management and National Appraisal Companies is a great place to start. Order it today for $69.99 and download it immediately!

Please visit our website now to make your purchase securely or contact us at (877) 434-2825 for more information on this comprehensive directory!

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Appraiser Help has Released its 2014 Directory of AMC’s and National Appraisal Companies. Click the link above to learn more and to download your copy today!


Rates & Dates

Freddie Mac, the Mortgage Brokers Association (MBA) and HSH Market Trends reported generally rising mortgage interest rates in their most recent surveys. 

On July 10th, Freddie Mac reported that 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 4.15% from 4.12% the previous week. They also noted that last year at this time the 30-year rate was at 4.51%.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported on July 9th (for the week ending July 4th) that 30-year rates with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) rose to 4.32% from 4.28%.  The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $417,500) fell from 4.26% to 4.24%.  Rates for FHA backed mortgages moved upward, from 3.99% to 4.02%. 

Adjusted for the July 4th holiday, mortgage applications increased by 1.9% from the previous week with the share of refinance applications as a percentage of all applications declining to 52% from 53% the previous week.

On July 10th, the MBA reported that applications for new home purchases fell by 5% in June from the previous month.

On July 11th, HSH Market Trends reported that 30-year mortgage rates rose to 4.24% from 4.19%. Rates for FHA-backed mortgages also increased, from 3.91% to 3.94%.

Additional information from Freddie Mac can be found by going to: Primary Mortgage Market Survey PMMS – Freddie Mac

Additional information from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found by going to their site at: Research and Forecasts – Mortgage Bankers Association

Additional information from HSH can be found by going to: HSH.Com

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Ask Angie

We would first like to congratulate our most recent winner: California appraiser John Thermos of John Thermos & Associates. John covers Santa Barbara County in southern California.  He was the first to answer correctly that Jerry Seinfeld was the author of all three quotes in our last newsletter: "It’s amazing that the amount of news that happens in the world every day always just exactly fits the newspaper"; "Sometimes the road less traveled is less traveled for a reason”; and "To me, if life boils down to one thing, it’s movement. To live is to keep moving."

Today’s Questions:

1. Who wrote: “Common sense is not so common.”

a) Aristotle
b) Voltaire
c)  Mark Twain
d) Thomas Paine
e) None of the above

2. Who said: "Be yourself, everyone else is already taken.”

a) Willie Nelson
b) Oscar Wilde
c) Ralph Waldo Emerson 
d) Lao Tzu
e) None of the above

3. Who said: “The reason I talk to myself is because I’m the only one whose answers I accept.”

a) Andrew Cuomo
b) George Carlin
c) Sarah Palin
d) Donald Trump
e) None of the above

The first person to respond with the correct answers wins a choice of one of the following:

One Free Regular Listing on AppraiserHelp.com

A Free Copy of the 2014 Directory of Appraisal Management Companies (Available to Members of AppraiserHelp.com and FHAAppraisers.com FREE!)

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Tell us what you think!

We invite your responses to any of the issues raised in this newsletter. Please e-mail us at: bill@appraiserhelp.com with your thoughts!

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We really hope you find our newsletter to be informative!  If you have any input on future topics for discussion, please email me your questions and I will do my best to address them in the next issue.  If you want to look back at past issues you can see our archive at www.appraisernews.com

Regards,

Bill Collins, Appraiser Help Inc.

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